The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills open third week National Football League action tonight at 5:15 p.m. Pacific Time. These are two AFC East Division opponents that couldn’t be on more different tracks after two weeks of regular season play.
The Dolphins are having behind closed door meetings to rag on their coaches.
The Bills are looking for a third straight win after downing the Baltimore Ravens in their opener with a dramatic fourth quarterback comeback and dominating the New York Jets last Sunday on the road.
Until tonight, the Dolphins had not yet been decided underdogs on the point spread. They opened in Indianapolis and then hosted New England to open their 2025 campaign. The Dolphins got one point against the Colts and were favored by 2½ for their contest last Sunday against the Patriots. Both games ended with the Dolphins on the wrong side of 33-8 and 33-27 decisions.
Tonight, they are double-digit underdogs in Buffalo.
In other words, the football world is watching these two teams and know something is obvious … the undefeated Bills are good, and the Dolphins are bad.
Good over bad. Right?
If only it was that easy.
Sometimes, and tonight may be one of those times, a good team will not have the motivational spike to run up a big score. In those games, people who wager on the better team will watch their bet burn while their selected team has such an easy time against their opponent, they appear on cruise control and never seem bent on running up the score.
That is the danger with a Bills wager tonight. The Bills might totally control this contest, keep the action in front of them without ever threatened to lose the game outright, and coast to a 10-point win.
If that happens, bad wins the bet.
On the other hand, the Bills are really good. If they were inspired to run up the score on the overmatched Dolphins, they could and would.
Why would they do that?
Well, they are still looking over the ridge of winning their first-ever Super Bowl. I know that sentence stings a Bills fan because it seems that they have had plenty of teams in years gone by that could have ended their campaign in a hail of confetti in their team colors. Problem is, there has always been somebody better than them since they missed their most likely shot at winning a Vince Lombardi Trophy.
They completed the 1990 season in Super Bowl XXV against the New York Giants. In that game, the Giants won the Super Bowl behind a quarterback that was clearly the worst ever at his position to capture a Roman Numeral game, Jeff Hostetler. He had replaced Phil Simms as the Giants starter in December after New York’s talented quarterback was sidelined with an injury.
From that moment on, the Giants success was pinned on two important elements. First, Bill Parcells, who perhaps coached the finest two months of his career in leading that Giants team to a Super Bowl title. Second, pure luck. New York relied almost exclusively on their dominating defense while hoping Hostetler didn’t make a mistake.
In the NFC Championship Game, the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion San Francisco 49ers were looking to clinch a narrow defensive struggle at Candlestick Park when their talented runningback, Roger Craig, fumbled the ball and gave the Giants life. A last second field won the game for New York, 15-13, and ended the 49ers bid for a three-peat.
In the Super Bowl, the Giants defense made all the big plays but in the end the Bills needed only for their kicker to convert a field goal to earn the Bills a Super Bowl ring. Norwood missed, and the Bills lost, 20-19.
Okay, just like I felt in 1962 when Willie McCovey’s line drive with Matty Alou at third and Willie Mays at second was caught by Bobby Richardson to end game seven of the 1962 World Series in the New York Yankees favor, 1-0. Not to worry, with Mays, McCovey and Cepeda, the Giants would be back.
Like the Bills narrow loss to the Giants 35 years ago, the Giants with that cast of characters never won a World Series. And despite dominating Buffalo teams behind the brilliant quarterbacking of Jim Kelly, after their loss to Bill Parcells and company Buffalo fell one game short the next three seasons with Super Bowl losses to better teams, namely the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys twice.
In recent years, the Bills have been stopped at the doorstep before advancing to a Super Bowl because the better team is in their own conference, the Kansas City Chiefs. But this year, the Chiefs are down a notch and their primary competition in the AFC is the Baltimore Ravens, who they staged their dramatic opening game win over two weeks ago.
Is this the Bills year to win their first Super Bowl?
Could be.
Do I want to bet on them tonight to win by two touchdowns or more?
I’m not looking to bet against it but not enthused to bet on it either.