I was talking to a guy who knows football really well, and I mentioned that the New England Patriots had ten consecutive games this season scoring at least 23 points and allowing 23 or fewer.
“How often does that happen?” He asked in a tone that appeared to indicate he thought it might happen a lot.
When I informed him that this was the first time it ever happened in professional football he was surprised. When I also revealed that only five teams before this season had scored at least 23 points and allowed 23 or fewer in as many as seven games in a row, he looked astounded.
The stat just didn’t sound on the surface like that big of a deal to him.
Now that I had his interest in this feat, I took it to the next level. The first five teams to do it at least seven times went on to win their league championship. The 1949 Philadelphia Eagles scored and allowed 23 points or less seven times and went on to win the National Football League Championship. In 1961, the Houston Oilers accomplished the feat nine straight weeks, the previous high for this record, and went on to win the American Football League title.
In the Super Bowl era, three teams before this season’s Patriots did it for at least seven consecutive games. They were the 1984 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams, and 2024 Philadelphia Eagles. Those three teams won the Super Bowl.
Does this mean the Patriots are a lock to win Super Bowl LX next month at Levi’s Stadium?
Yes.
And no.
The only irrefutable stat that will clearly indicate a Super Bowl winner is the team that scores more points in the game. Huge favorites have lost, but not often. Teams with the better defense usually win, but not all the time. Teams during the regular season that have scored 23 points while allowing 23 or fewer at least seven weeks in a row have won Super Bowls but, but nothing. Yeah, they have always won.
So, the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl?
That’s why they play the games.
Nothing is ever for sure, but can we at least assume that New England is going to get off to a win in their opening playoff matchup against a quarterback that has never won a postseason game?
New England is favored, by a little more than a field goal, when they host the Los Angeles Chargers Saturday night. This is the third time Los Angeles Quarterback Justin Herbert has guided his team into the playoffs, the first two didn’t end well.
In his first postseason game, Herbert led the Chargers into Jacksonville to meet the Jaguars and built a 27-7 halftime lead. Unfortunately, the Chargers should have saved some of the champagne for after the game, because Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars led a dramatic second half comeback to eke out a one-point victory, 31-30. Last year, in his second trip to the postseason and with his new coach, Jim Harbaugh, Herbert landed in Houston with his team favored over the Texans. For almost the first quarter, the Chargers appeared on their way to a win, then the trend took a dramatic shift when Houston Quarterback C.J. Stroud found his stride and Herbert turned the ball over enroute to a crushing 32-12 loss in Texas.
So, after two postseason trips that ended with a thud, is the third the charm for Herbert and company?
Despite the Patriots success under their first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, and the play of quarterback Drake Maye that has him in the running for Most Valuable Player, this lines up as a tough game for the home team. High expectations for a young team can be a horrible motivational problem. The Patriots finished last season in last place, now they are in the playoffs. The worst to first scenario has happened a lot more often than a team scoring and allowing fewer than 23 points, and it is not nearly as consistent of a winner.
In other words, the Patriots have history that both lends to a victory and spells possible defeat. While I am cautious to wager against the Patriots in this one, there is a clear indicator that books want New England money. The Patriots are the most bet team this weekend, and still the books have not moved off the 3½ point spread.
If the books want Patriots money, I’m on the Chargers.
Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Chargers (+3½) over New England Patriots