Six Wild Card games on the National Football League schedule are spread over three days this weekend. A pair of contests are staged on Saturday and one game on Monday, the three games on Sunday begin with a contest in Jacksonville where the Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills.
In recent times, the American Football Conference has been dominated by three teams; the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Only one of those three recent powerhouses won a Super Bowl, the Chiefs capturing three since the 2019 season and a trio of National Football Conference squids won the other three since the Chiefs won their first, that being the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.
This season, there has been a changing of the guard in the AFC. Both the Chiefs and Ravens missed the playoff field and the Bills are underdogs this week when they battle the Jaguars in Florida.
The Bills point spreads this season have been mostly tied to reputation. Only the Rams have a net higher points against on the spread over the past eight games than the Bills. Buffalo has given a net total 48½ points over their final eight games while the Rams were favored by 60 points. The Rams need to lay a lot of points in 2024 was tied to their success this season, the Bills more to their reputation from years gone by.
Against the spread this season, the Bills have a losing 8 and 9 record. Their opponent this week has a net 30 points given on the spread in their final eight games and Jacksonville has won all those games against the line while compiling a winning 12-5 mark for the season.
Real results is why the Jaguars are favored over the Bills this Sunday at EverBank Stadium. The line being trimmed from an opening number that had the Jaguars favored by 1½ points to the current one-point spread is tied to the Bills reputation.
So, what is reputation, read that as experience, value in the postseason? And does it justify the Bills spread shift?
That is a question without a clear answer.
I have observed teams that have playoff experience overcome current talent deficiencies against inexperienced postseason teams. I have also seen new kids to the playoffs blowout opponents with experience that are counting on that carrying them when their talent doesn’t.
Where does that leave us this week on this game?
With both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson missing from the playoff field, it would appear Buffalo’s Josh Allen is the best AFC signal caller still in the hunt for a Super Bowl. That may offer him a path to the Bills first-ever Super Bowl win. But, if Allen is to lead the Bills to the promise land, he is going to have to overcome some obvious flaws in this year’s Bills team.
Offensively, the Bills rushed for a league high 5.0 yards per-carry, but only the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals allowed a higher average against the run on defense than Buffalo’s 5.1. Buffalo passed for a league high 1,015 yards more than their opponents, and those kinds of stats are in line with a team that doesn’t dominant week in and week out. When a team with a suspect defense also has a reputation that exceeds their current skill, well that is why the upstart Jaguars are favored over the Bills this week.
Allen is in that elite group of quarterbacks that can carry a team. His position opponent this week, Trevor Lawarence, has been an underachiever through most of his five-year professional career. He came out of college with the fourth highest scouting rankings in the Super Bowl era. Only three QB’s left college with higher appraisals from the scouts, they were John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
Lawrence led Clemson to the National Championship in his freshman season and compiled incredible won/loss records in both high school and college. At Cartersville High School in Georgia, he was 52-2 which included a 41-game winning streak. His record at Clemson was 34-2.
Despite the promise entering the NFL, his pro career has not been nearly as successful as once projected. He did lead the Jaguars to the playoffs in 2022 and earned a Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. But this is only his second trip to the playoffs, and his team is challenged by one of the best leaders in all of sports in Josh Allen.
So, who wins this game?
Do you recall I mentioned the defensive stats?
They matter most, particularly in the playoffs.
Qoxhi Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) over Buffalo Bills