I have always admired jugglers.
Maybe because I am no good at it.
I had a friend in college that could juggle like someone who could have been featured on the old Ed Sullivan Show. He would try to teach me, but those sessions always ended with laughter at my inept attempts.
Chase a baseball in the outfield. Oh yeah, I was good at that. Loved it. I used to talk my brother and friends into hitting me fly balls so I could shag them. Something about a single baseball in the air fell into my comfort zone but put multiple objects up and I was as clumsy as the old saying of a Bull in a China Shop.
Tonight, the Buffalo Bills are in Houston to meet the Texans. This one is a juggling act.
A few weeks ago, we thought two teams with losing records had a real good shot at getting back into the playoff hunt. One was the Baltimore Ravens, they have now won four straight games to pull to within one of the AFC North Division leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The other was the Houston Texans.
The Texans rise has not been as steady as Baltimore’s. Three weeks ago, they seemed to have the upper hand and on their way to a win over the talented Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, just then their quarterback, C.J. Stroud, was drilled by a Denver defender and has been in concussion protocol ever since. In that game, backup quarterback Davis Mills never got the Texans into the endzone, and five field goals didn’t withstand 11 fourth quarter points by the visitors on their way to an 18-15 victory.
Even with the backup the following week, the Texans were on the cusp of being eliminated from postseason consideration when they staged their own fourth quarter rally to erase a 19-point deficit on their way to a 36-29 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Okay, get Stroud back and all systems are go.
Except, Stroud remained sidelined with his concussion and betting on a backup to win back-to-back games while favored on the road was tough sledding no matter who the opponent was. In this case, it was the Tennessee Titans, and while the Texans overcame a halftime deficit to eke out a 16-13 win, it wasn’t enough to cover the five-point spread.
Tonight, the Texans are still without Stroud, and the chances of winning with their backup again against a talented Bills squad are not good. But factor in a generous six-point home underdog role, and the prospects of cashing a Texans ticket is greatly enhanced.
Got all those balls in the air.
Okay, add these.
The Buffalo Bills have not been as dominant this season as they have been in the recent past, and their defense has been downright average. So, from that perspective, take the points even with the backup quarterback.
But wait. There is more.
The Bills are not leading their division and that adds focus to their preparation and probable play tonight. The Bills seven wins and three losses have them 1½ games behind the 9 and 2 New England Patriots in the AFC East Division.
In other words, this is a must game for the Bills.
The better team usually wins a must game, which reduces our best chance of cashing a wager on the Texans tonight to the point spread. Note this, over the past 10 NFL regular seasons road favorites of 6 points, like the Bills tonight, are 41-11 straight up. Now, in a typical season, 16% of NFL games shift the straight-up loser to a point spread winner. Six-point home underdogs have a higher percentage of their games shifted by the line with 23% of their games generating a point spread win despite a straight-up loss.
Enough balls in the air?
The additional 23% point spread wins for the 6-point home underdogs still doesn’t get the underdog over the losing side of this proposition which computes to 44% with a 21-27-4 record against the line.
Yep, the Texans need this one … so do the Bills … and both have reasons to get it.
I’m just not good enough at juggling to allow all these factors to generate a solid recommendation on this primetime matchup.