Early week forecasts for severe weather in Chicago for tonight’s game between the Bears and Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field have been revised to cold, windy but no precipitation. In other words, both teams can rely more on their passing games than the early forecast would have allowed.
Rain is expected in Carolina when the Los Angeles Rams visit the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. That game is set to kickoff at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time with the late game scheduled for 5:00 p.m.
In 1975, the National Football League adopted playoff seeding based on regular season records. Before that, home team advantage in the playoffs was determined before the season began on a rotating basis, that is why in 1972 the undefeated Miami Dolphins had to play the American Football Conference Championship Game on the road en route to their perfect season. For the record, the Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at Three Rivers Stadium before capping their campaign with a win over the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl VII.
Two things came into play when the NFL adopted the playoff seeding formula based on regular season results. First, end of the year games became much more meaningful and the teams that held leads in their division were not able to coast the final few weeks if a squad from another division could overtake them in the win/loss column.
The seeding formula got the NFL what they wanted, more competition, and pulled the rug out from under the gamblers who took advantage of good teams taking weeks off while the public kept betting on them.
Now, everything that is put in place that dictates this has to happen if that happens is going to have situations where it just doesn’t make sense. Last year, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions met on the final day of the regular season while holding the best two records in the league. The winner, as the NFC North Division champion, would get the top seed in the playoffs, the loser, now a second-place team, would be relegated behind the four division winners to the fifth slot.
The Lions won, hosted the Washington Commanders to open their playoff participation in the Divisional Round, and lost as a double-digit favorite. The Vikings went on the road, met the Rams at a neutral site because of the fires in Southern California, and got hammered out of the playoffs.
This year, the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers met on the final weekend of the regular season, and the winner, Seattle, earned the top seed in the NFC and the loser was relegated not only behind the four division winners but, as it turned out, also behind the Rams. Los Angeles matched the 49ers season win total of 12 games and got the fifth seed over San Francisco based on a tiebreaker determination.
The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers have the best three records in the NFC, and they fill the first, fifth and sixth playoff seeds.
Fair?
By the rules, yes. But do the Panthers, who had a losing record this season, eight wins against nine losses which was good enough to win the NFC South Division, really deserve to be at home today when they open the playoffs against the Rams?
The only justice here would be if the Rams blow the Panthers away to fully illustrate how the seeding system is flawed. Then again, this might just be exactly what the NFL wants, offering the Panthers a home edge when they are overmatched man-for-man.
After all, if this game was played in Los Angeles, the Rams would be favored by 16 points. On the road, they are still double-digit favorites but only by 10 points. The wagering on this game, with the huge point spread, has been split … but from where I sit, the line can’t make up the difference between these two teams.
The playoffs kickoff today with this mismatch, then the weekend gets a lot more competitive.