They really don’t know.
The inside people who usually know everything, more than the media, more than the teams and certainly more than the National Football League offices don’t know. In this case, I don’t even think the coach knows, because if he did, the bookmakers would know.
Inside information is always the key, sometimes illegal, and in almost all cases known by the people with the most at stake. One might think that the biggest gamblers every week are the bookmakers who set a line and then give people the opportunity to wager on either side of it. To balance their apparent disadvantage of giving the bettors the choice of sides, the books charge for the service, traditionally charging 10% on losing wagers. The vig.
Okay, a couple things. First, the people that don’t gamble every week are the books. They are running a business that they have designed to give them the advantage. And the public betting habits contribute more than the simple advantage of the vig, they more often than not bet on the wrong side of the offered propositions.
Why?
Because the books are the smartest rats in this game. They are so good at what they do they know where to set a line to entice the public to the wrong side. It is also true that books in Vegas that accept legal wagers normally show a profit of less than 10% of all action over the course of a season, but more than 8%. While the guy on the phone betting with his book loses at least 13% of the handle (the total amount wagered) and as much as 17% over the course of a season.
Why?
Because the legal books in Vegas, and I know, other states now, require you to put up the money before they write you a ticket. So, the guy that lost a bundle in the Sunday morning and afternoon games has to come up with cash if he wants to get it all back on the Sunday night game. The guy calling his book doesn’t have to put up the cash, so he can simply say, as long as it is within his limit with the bookie, to put ridiculous amounts of money on a single game in an attempt to cover multiple losses.
That’s gambling in its most destructive form. Having to put up cash can temper this problem, the opportunity to just say an amount to wager is acid for a gambler.
But this week, the people running the books who almost always know everything about their business, don’t know who is starting at quarterback on Sunday for the Cincinnati Bengals. The line opened on Sunday night with the road New England Patriots favored by eight points, a line that indicated Cincinnati Quarterback Joe Burrow would still be sidelined with the toe he injured in the second week of the season.
Then, on Thursday, the line was sliced to the Patriots favored by 5½ points. When I saw that line shift, I knew one of two things must be true, either New England Quarterback Drake Maye grew a foot in height or Joe Burrow was going to start for the Bengals at quarterback.
Turned out to be Burrow was expected to start.
But wait. On Friday, that assumption was tempered and the books, the guys who routinely know everything, responded by moving the Patriots back to a 7½ point favorite. Then, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told the media on Friday night that he really wasn’t sure if Burrow was going to be able to go on Sunday or not.
Now, usually when a coach plays coy with the availability of a quarterback, it is for competitive reasons. It can force an opponent to prepare for two possible starting quarterbacks.
But in this case and evidenced by the books move on the line today, whether Burrow is starting on Sunday is really unknown. How did the books respond? They did what any bright business would do with uncertainty, they removed their exposure by taking the game off the board. They’ll put a line back up for this game when they are sure of Burrow’s availability.
Here is what we know. The Bengals, Burrow or not, have a defense that is among the worst in points allowed in NFL history. And Burrow doesn’t play defense. We also know that the Patriots are in first place and have already established themselves with a group of five other teams in professional football history to score at least 23 points and allow 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games.
Burrow or not, I think the Patriots make it eight straight on Sunday … and take advantage of that porous Bengals defense.
Qoxhi Picks: New England Patriots (-7½) over Cincinnati Bengals